(Photo: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees might be as good as Peyton Manning. Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Bruce Arthur, National Post

It’s fitting that one of the teams in the Super Bowl this week was greatly aided by bounce of a coin. Yes, the New Orleans Saints also won because of several Minnesota mistakes — whoa, hold on. Just gotta recover this one last Vikings fumble. There we go.

Where were we? Oh, right. Yes, Brett Favre saved his team-crushing interception for the last possible moment — he’s an artist, that guy — but Minnesota’s last big mistake was calling heads just before the overtime coin flip came up tails, because the Vikings never got the ball in OT, and the next thing you know the French Quarter is coated in an enthusiastic layer of vomit. After one hell of a strange game, it was the coin that did the Vikings in.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets made the mistake of playing against Peyton Manning. Try not to make that same error the next time, guys.

The lesson: the NFL is always capable of being a 50-50 proposition. The wife of this space, for instance, has correctly picked 50% of winners in these playoffs. Does she watch football? She does not. Why did you pick Minnesota over Dallas, I asked. “Well, I don’t like Texas, really,” she said. “Nothing good comes from Texas.” What about picking the Jets over San Diego? “San Diego’s too close to the scary guys,” she said. The scary guys? You mean Oakland fans? “Yeah,” she said. “They’re scary.”

In other words, whether you know football or not, 50% of the time you’re probably right. Meanwhile, at the beginning of this season, this space correctly predicted 50% of the Super Bowl participants. New Orleans? Yes! The other prediction? Um, Tennessee. Yeah.

So now that we live in a world where Kurt Warner is retired, where Brett Favre may never retire, where the NFC has won 12 consecutive Super Bowl coin tosses, and where David Garrard played in the Pro Bowl. A lot. The first of those was somewhat predictable, the second is a little less predictable, the third completely unpredictable, and the last one you couldn’t have predicted with a direct line to God.

All this is just craven justification for the fact that this space predicted one of two conference winners, and went 0-2 against the spread. Fittingly, that means this space is now 133-133 on the season.

You know the funny part? This was the exact same scenario at the conclusion of NFL Picks 2007. Then, this space picked the New York Giants, 12-point underdogs, to upset the New England Patriots by a field goal.

Then last season, this space picked Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23. Let’s put it this way: This space might only have one good day a year, but lately, it’s been the big day.

Either the Indianapolis Colts or the New Orleans Saints will be better on the big day. The trick is correctly guessing which one that will be. And no, this will not involve flipping a coin. Just an opinion.

As always, the line could change.

New Orleans (+5½) vs. Indianapolis (at Miami)
This line opened at four, then jumped like a young lady goosed by Jeremy Shockey. Why? Well, maybe it was because against the Jets, Peyton Manning wasn’t just throwing into tight windows; he was making throws that could have slipped through your mail slot.

Then again, maybe it was because all it took for New Orleans to overcome Minnesota was Minnesota’s 47 fumbles, an unconscionable pass-interference call in overtime, Brett Favre’s regulation-ending interception, Minnesota’s too-many-men-in-the-huddle penalty that pulled them out of field-goal range just before the interception — been a big year for too-many-men in football, hasn’t it? — and a Robert Meacham catch that very well might have actually been a catch.

Whatever the reason, I’ve been trying to talk myself into New Orleans for two weeks. The city, and the franchise, obviously needs it more. Drew Brees is a hell of a quarterback; he might even be as good as Peyton Manning. The Saints have a better running game, versus Indianapolis’s better defence. When both teams got New England at home, only one of them needed Bill Belichick to royally screw up in order to win.

Sure, scoring 30 points against the Jets is the equivalent of about 48 points against the Saints. But if Mark Sanchez could throw for two TDs and be within a field goal after 51 minutes, then what can Drew Brees do?

So basically, the guess here is that it comes down to which team can rattle — or at least, hurry — which quarterback.

The flaw in the Jets was that they’re a great defence without a great pass rush; Manning had time to find the right combination to New York’s lock.
Yes, New Orleans bruised up Brett Favre something fierce, but Indianapolis gave up the fewest sacks in football this season. Of course, New Orleans gave up the fourth-fewest. See how logic works against you?

It feels close. It feels like a coin flip. And basically the decision comes down to a gut feeling, which is essentially that betting against Peyton Manning has become the equivalent of betting against the presence of drunk guys wearing baseball caps on Bourbon Street. The Colts have a little better pass rush, a little more big-game experience, a little more … something.

Except … wait. I changed my mind. I’m taking the underdogs, because only one of these teams can run the football.

Yes, I’m betting on Reggie Bush, and a guy named Pierre.

The last time Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl, the other quarterback was Rex Grossman. This one will be harder.

Pick New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 31.

Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/postedsports/archive/2010/02/05/nfl-picks-super-bowl-edition-saints-or-colts.aspx#ixzz0enIVlEdo
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